Re: More points were received but the chance to find the solution has decreased?

From: Daniel de Rauglaudre (daniel.de_rauglaudre@inria.fr)
Date: Tue Mar 07 2000 - 09:42:04 MET

  • Next message: Dan Oetting: "Re: More points were received but the chance to find the solution has decreased?"

    > The current report on http://cristal.inria.fr/bin/ecdldb?m=TB;notab=on is that
    > "Total received points: 1351367.
    > We had a 47.74% chance of finding the solution by now,
    > but we haven't found it!"
    > Yet as far as I recall the chance was higher on previous days although there
    > were less points.

    The explanation appears some line below in this page (and in all of them):
    didn't you read it?

    << Please note: probability estimates have now been revised. Previously
       they used the approximation that each distinguished point took 1.4
       billion iterations on average. The actual average is about 1.1 billion
       currently and is gradually increasing towards 1.4 billion. The revised
       estimates are more accurate, but a bit lower. >>

    Our previous estimation or probability was optimistic. 

    -- 
Daniel de RAUGLAUDRE
daniel.de_rauglaudre@inria.fr
http://cristal.inria.fr/~ddr/

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