More points were received but the chance to find the solution has decreased?

From: Shaul Karl (shaulk@israsrv.net.il)
Date: Tue Mar 07 2000 - 03:20:34 MET

  • Next message: Daniel de Rauglaudre: "Re: More points were received but the chance to find the solution has decreased?"

    The current report on http://cristal.inria.fr/bin/ecdldb?m=TB;notab=on is that
            "Total received points: 1351367.
             We had a 47.74% chance of finding the solution by now,
             but we haven't found it!"
    Yet as far as I recall the chance was higher on previous days although there
    were less points.
    Is there a simple arithmetic error in the calculation of the chance to find a
    solution or am I missing something more essential? 

    -- 
Shaul Karl		 		   shaulk@israsrv.net.il
	An elephant is a mouse with an operating system.

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