I have had a machine get almost 20,000,000,000 points without a
distinguished point found. Several days later, that same PC
(~90,000/s) found 18 points (average should be ~5 points/day)
You just never know. I don't think the points are evenly
distributed, i.e. I have had too many PC's go a long time with
nothing, and then had 3-5 points found in less than a billion
itterations. (just personal observations with many PC's)
I don't think your odd's are 1 in 100, but you have hit a "dry"
spot in the search-space.
Jim.
>X-Sender: oetting@ghtmail.cr.usgs.gov
>Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2000 17:44:28 -0700
>To: ecdl-list@pauillac.inria.fr
>From: Dan Oetting <oetting@gldmutt.cr.usgs.gov>
>Subject: Expected itterations between points
>
>I haven't found a new point in days (over 7,000,000,000 iterations). I
>realize the odds against this are only a little over 100 to 1 so a dry
>spell of this length is going to hit somebody every 100+ points. But why
>did it have to hit me :-(
>
>I was just thinking it might be interesting to have a chart showing the
>iterations for points found in comparison to the projected probabilities.
>
>-- Dan Oetting <oetting@ghtmail.cr.usgs.gov>
>
>
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