## Current status of the ECDL7
challenge

The following graphs show the number of distinguished points found
per day, the total number of points found so far, and estimated
probabilities of success as a function of time.

Use the
mouse to drag out a new area to zoom to. Start at the upper left and
drag down to the lower right. Click on the applet to return to the
original scale. The graphs are automatically updated every hour.

The curves labeled "Initial expectations" (blue curve and red curve)
represent the probabilities to find a solution when starting from scratch.
They give a rough idea of how far we've progressed in the
search.

The curve labeled "Actual result" (orange curve)
reflects the fact that the challenge was solved on 2000-04-03!

The probabilities for dates in the past are based on the actual
numbers of points found. For dates in the future, the number of
points found is extrapolated as follows:

- The curves labeled "constant speed" (blue and orange)
assume a constant number of points per day,
determined by averaging the number of points found in the last 7 days.
This corresponds to the conservative assumption that we are not going
to attract more participants than we have now.
- The curves labeled "linearly increasing speed" (red and green)
assume that the number of points per day
will increase linearly, at a rate determined by a linear regression on
the numbers of points per day obtained so far. This corresponds to the
more optimistic assumption that the number of participants will
continue to grow linearly.

Graphs done with the XYPlot
applet, copyright 1998 Sandia National Laboratories.