The following graphs show the number of distinguished points found per day, the total number of points found so far, and estimated probabilities of success as a function of time.
Use the mouse to drag out a new area to zoom to. Start at the upper left and drag down to the lower right. Click on the applet to return to the original scale. The graphs are automatically updated every hour.
The curves labeled "Initial expectations" (blue curve and red curve) represent the probabilities to find a solution when starting from scratch. They give a rough idea of how far we've progressed in the search.
The curve labeled "Actual result" (orange curve) reflects the fact that the challenge was solved on 2000-04-03!
The probabilities for dates in the past are based on the actual numbers of points found. For dates in the future, the number of points found is extrapolated as follows: